WWF TANZANIA - REGIONAL REDD SCENARIO BUILDING

PRESS RELEASE - REGIONAL WORKSHOP ON LAND USE AND COVER CHANGE SCENARIOS IN LAKE ZONE

1.0: Introduction

WWF Tanzania through REDD+ Pilot project has planned a series of regional workshop on land use/cover changes scenarios in six zones of Tanzania. Land use/cover change is one of the main drivers of environmental change in the lake zone. Therefore understanding pattern of land use changes with its associated drivers are necessary step towards formulating appropriate policies for sustainable development.

REDD+ Project team is conducting regional scenario workshop in Mwanza for Lake Zone starting on 20^th to 22^nd March, 2014. The Lake zone comprises five regions namely Mwanza, Mara, Simiyu, Geita and Kagera.

The workshop brings together different stakeholders from various institutions including Central and Local government, Non-Governmental Organization (NGO), Private sectors, Cooperative society and Government agencies. It is important to have wide representatives of different stakeholders because

The main purpose of the workshop is to determine possible future land use and cover changes for year 2025 based on business as usual and green economy scenarios through involvement of different stakeholders from Lake Zone. Results from the workshop in combination with socio-economic data are important for generating maps of potential future land use/cover.

The two scenarios represent two possible evolution of current situation in Tanzania. In the Business as Usual scenario, current trends are projected over the next 10 years, there is increasing competition among different land uses and economic growth is pursued without taking into account neither social nor environmental sustainability. In particular this means: 1) population growth will continue at the rate (2.7% per year); 2) small scale agriculture will remain the first source of income for the majority of the population, with low productivity due to lack of technology improvement and relevant capacity building, and so there is an increase in demand for new land to be converted to agricultural uses; 3) at the same time there is an increasing amount of land leased to foreigner investors for commercial agriculture;  4) biomass (charcoal and fuel wood) remains the main source of energy for the growing population (particularly for the main city of Dar es Salaam); 4) schemes for supporting sustainable management of forest and safeguard of biodiversity and ecosystem services fail to be implemented (including REDD+); therefore deforestation and impact on biodiversity, soil and water increase.

In the Green Economy scenario, environmental concerns including deforestation and Carbon emissions are integrated at different levels in national and subnational policies, strategies and interventions, so to optimize the trade-off between socio-economic development and sustainable use of resources. In particular this means: 1) population continues to growth but  2) there is an increase of agriculture productivity thanks to technology and know-how improvement, and so less demand for new land; 3) biomass remains the main source of energy for cooking, but alternative energy sources are developed; 4) schemes for supporting sustainable management of forest and safeguard of biodiversity and ecosystem services, and for reducing the drivers of deforestation and Carbon emissions are succesfully implemented (including REDD+).

Specific objectives

1.      To identify main sectors affecting land use and cover change

2.      To assess the current situation of main sectors focusing on Economy and Environmental aspects and trajectories into two different scenarios ( Business as Usual (BAU) and Green Economy) for year 2025.

3.      To identify drivers/factors for possible land use changes

4.      To determine possibility of change in each identified land use/cover existing in southern zone.

2: Relevance of land use/cover change map

It is anticipated that developed maps of land use/cover change under business as usual and green economy scenarios would enable policy maker to see possible future impact of land use changes on natural resource management, in particular on ecosystem services (e.g. carbon sequestration and biodiversity). Consequently, the outcome of this project can be used as a tool to analyse the impacts of different possible policies and interventions, and then to review existing policy and investment regulations to attain sustainable development.